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Structure and dynamics mapping of illicit firearms trafficking using artificial intelligence models.

Willy A Valdivia-Granda1

  • 1Orion Integrated Biosciences Inc., Manhattan, KS, United States.

Frontiers in Big Data
|October 13, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Illicit firearms trafficking is a growing global threat, with reports increasing tenfold and expanding to over eighty countries. This study uses AI to analyze news, revealing maritime routes and links to other crimes.

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Computational Social Science
  • International Security

Background:

  • Illicit firearms trafficking poses significant global health, trade, and security risks.
  • Understanding its network structure is challenging due to fragmented, multilingual, and biased news reports.
  • Latin America faces a disproportionate impact from firearms trafficking.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To operationalize the International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes (ICCS) for analyzing illicit firearms trafficking.
  • To develop an automated, multilingual pipeline using BERT architecture and zero-shot prompts for entity resolution.
  • To transform fragmented news into structured, auditable indicators for reproducible analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a three-part analytic pipeline with BERT architecture and zero-shot prompts for entity resolution.
Keywords:
BERTICCSentity resolutionfirearms traffickinggeocodesnamed entitiestimestampszero-shot prompts

Related Experiment Videos

  • Converted multilingual news reports into structured JSON data with named entities, geocodes, and timestamps.
  • Applied the International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes (ICCS) framework.
  • Main Results:

    • Identified 8,171 firearms trafficking reports from 2014 to July 2024, with a tenfold increase in incidents.
    • Geographic scope expanded from twenty to over eighty countries, with a 155% rise from 2022 to 2023.
    • Revealed a maritime bias, with ports used six times more than land or air routes, and linked trafficking to drug trafficking, homicide, and terrorism.

    Conclusions:

    • This study presents the first automated, multilingual application of ICCS to firearms trafficking using modern language technologies.
    • The developed pipeline enables early warning systems, enhances cross-border coordination on trafficking routes, and supports intervention evaluation.
    • Structured data transforms media narratives into actionable evidence for strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making in combating organized crime.