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  1. Home
  3. Identifying Key Uncertainties In Energy Transitions With A Puerto Rico Case Study.
  1. Home
  3. Identifying Key Uncertainties In Energy Transitions With A Puerto Rico Case Study.

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Identifying key uncertainties in energy transitions with a Puerto Rico case study.

Kamiar Khayambashi1, Andres F Clarens1, William M Shobe2

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.

Nature Communications
|October 13, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Energy transition planning can be improved by identifying key uncertainties. This study found hurricane frequency and organizational inefficiency significantly impact costs for Puerto Rico

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Area of Science:

  • Energy Systems Analysis
  • Decision Science
  • Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

  • Energy transition planning faces challenges due to high-dimensional uncertainties.
  • Simplifying uncertainties can lead to suboptimal or uninformed decisions in energy planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a computationally efficient framework for identifying key uncertainty sources in energy transition planning.
  • To guide decision-makers by highlighting critical factors influencing energy system costs.

Main Methods:

  • Leveraged surrogate-based sensitivity analysis to pinpoint uncertainty drivers.
  • Applied the framework to Puerto Rico's hurricane-prone power system.
  • Analyzed total expected costs and scenario-specific operational costs.

Main Results:

  • Hurricane frequency and organizational inefficiency are primary uncertainty sources for Puerto Rico's total expected energy system cost.
  • Specific transition scenarios have unique key uncertainty drivers, such as biofuel prices for renewable systems.
  • The framework effectively narrows the focus on critical uncertainties.

Conclusions:

  • Sensitivity analysis is crucial for robust energy transition planning under uncertainty.
  • Understanding specific uncertainty drivers allows for more targeted and efficient planning strategies.
  • The proposed framework offers a practical tool for energy planners in complex systems.