Predictors of pulmonary infarction in pediatric pulmonary embolism: A retrospective cohort study

Shuxuan Li1, Min Wang2, Yongsheng Xu2

  • 1Clinical School of Paediatrics, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.

Thrombosis Research
|October 14, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Pulmonary infarction (PI) in children with pulmonary embolism (PE) is rare. Chest pain, elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and high temperature are key risk factors for PI. A logistic regression model shows promise for predicting PI in pediatric patients.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Pulmonology
  • Cardiovascular Imaging
  • Thrombosis Research

Background:

  • Pulmonary infarction (PI) is an uncommon complication of pulmonary embolism (PE) in pediatric patients.
  • Identifying risk factors and predictive indicators for PI in children is crucial for timely diagnosis and management.
  • In situ pulmonary artery thrombosis is the predominant form of PE in this age group.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify risk factors associated with the development of pulmonary infarction (PI) in pediatric patients with pulmonary embolism (PE).
  • To evaluate the diagnostic utility of various predictive indicators and scoring systems for PI in children.
  • To assess the efficacy of a logistic regression model in predicting PI.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study of pediatric patients (<18 years) diagnosed with PE via computed tomography angiography (CTA).
  • Data collection included demographics, medical history, clinical findings, laboratory results, and imaging.
  • Analysis involved logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to identify risk factors and assess diagnostic performance of scoring systems (simplified Wells, revised Geneva, PE Severity Index).

Main Results:

  • Among 41 pediatric PE patients, 15 had PI. Deep vein thrombosis was absent in 95% of cases.
  • Simplified Wells, revised Geneva, and PE Severity Index scores showed poor predictive performance for pediatric PE or PI.
  • Independent risk factors for PI included chest pain (aOR=6.85), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (aOR=2.77), and maximum temperature (aOR=3.83).
  • A logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.846 for PI prediction, significantly outperforming the simplified Wells score (AUC=0.640).

Conclusions:

  • Chest pain, elevated BUN, and maximum temperature are significant independent risk factors for PI in pediatric PE.
  • A logistic regression model demonstrates high efficacy in predicting PI, suggesting potential for developing a dedicated pediatric PI scoring system.
  • The findings highlight the importance of clinical symptoms and basic laboratory values in identifying pediatric PE patients at risk for infarction.
Abstract

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