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A Study Protocol for the Macro-analysis of Iran's Health System with System Dynamics Approach
Mozhgan Emami1, AliAkbar Haghdoost2, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi3,4
1Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran
|October 15, 2025
Summary
This study models Iran's complex health system (HS) to identify key drivers and inform policy. The research uses a mixed-methods approach to enhance healthcare delivery and decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Health Systems Research
- Policy Analysis
- System Dynamics Modeling
Background:
- Health systems are complex and interconnected, requiring a systems approach for effective management.
- Understanding system dynamics is crucial for improving health care delivery and policy.
- A real-world perspective and system modeling are essential for analyzing health system complexity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key components and drivers within Iran's health system.
- To analyze the current state of the health system and test policy alternatives.
- To provide insights for better decision-making and enhanced healthcare delivery.
Main Methods:
- A 4-phase mixed-methods study combining quantitative and qualitative analyses.
- Utilized the Balanced Scorecard framework for variable identification and scoping reviews.
- Employed cross-impact analysis, scenario writing, and dynamic modeling in Vensim software.
Main Results:
- Identification of key variables and indicators within the health system.
- Determination of key drivers and levers influencing Iran's health system.
- Development of a dynamic model to simulate the health system over 10 years.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a methodological foundation for Iran's national development plan.
- Results can inform the Ministry of Health, Treatment, and Medical Education's policy formulation.
- The dynamic model offers a tool for evaluating future health system scenarios.
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