[Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Yuxi City Based on the...

Examining the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Yuxi City holds significant practical importance and provides robust scientific support for the region to address urban climate change， strengthen environmental protection， and achieve the "dual carbon" goals. This study utilized seven sets of land use data from Yuxi City， collected every five years between 1990 and 2020， to quantify the dynamic relationship between land use change and carbon storage. Based on the requirements of the special plan for territorial spatial planning in Yuxi City， the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns in 2030 under four different development scenarios： natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development. The InVEST model was then used to assess the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage under these scenarios， and the Geodetector model was applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage and the driving mechanisms behind it in greater detail. The study produced several important results： ① From a temporal perspective， the most significant forest restoration occurred between 1990 and 1995， and construction land expanded rapidly between 2015 and 2020. In terms of spatial distribution， the most notable land use changes were observed in the eastern part of Yuxi City. Both cultivated land and grassland showed decreasing trends， with cultivated land experiencing a particularly prominent decrease of 176.07 square kilometers， while forest land increased by 81.48 square kilometers. ② Between 1990 and 2020， the carbon storage in Yuxi City first increased and then decreased， from 306.282 7 million tons in 1990， peaking at 307.699 4 million tons in 1995， and then to 305.559 8 million tons in 2020. Among this decrease， the loss of carbon storage due to the reduction of cultivated land accounted for 80% of the total reduction. ③ Compared to 2020， the carbon storage in 2030 decreased under all scenarios， that is， natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development， with carbon storage amounts of 304.831 4 million， 304.538 9 million， 305.504 8 million， and 305.211 0 million tons， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， optimizing land use structure and improving land use efficiency can effectively mitigate the threat of urban development to carbon storage loss. ④ NDVI is a key driving factor explaining the spatial differentiation pattern of carbon storage in Yuxi City， with a q-value of 0.338 8. The interaction between NDVI and elevation enhances the explanatory power of each factor on the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Under the ecological protection scenario， with the continuous expansion of forest land area， carbon storage in the ecosystem can effectively accumulate， positively contributing to a significant increase in carbon storage in Yuxi City.