Kidney cancer incidence trends in 37 countries from 1988 to 2037: Rising rates among young generation

The current analysis of the global burden of kidney cancer (KC) is limited and outdated. Thus, the risk of KC in the younger generation may have been overlooked. This study assessed KC incidence trends in 37 countries from 1988 to 2037 and compared the specific annual percentage changes between younger and older generations across countries.

This study analyzed KC incidence trends in 37 countries (1988-2037) through age-period-cohort modeling using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) data and calculated age-specific annual percentage changes.

According to the latest data from CI5, there were 388,595 newly diagnosed KC cases, with age-standardized rates (ASRs) of 27.09 per 100,000 individuals. KC incidence exhibited significant geographical disparities, with the largest difference being 36 times. The ASRs of KC increased in 32 of 37 countries, 1988 to 2017. The incidence of KC has increased among young men (<50 years) in 24 countries and among young women in 18 countries. The annual percentage changes in cohort effects were greater in the younger age groups in 16 countries among men and in 9 countries among women. The overall cohort effect increased in 22 countries for men and 21 countries for women. Projections to 2037 suggest that KC rates will increase in 24 countries for men and in 20 countries for women, with some countries experiencing a 32-fold increase.

The global incidence of KC is increasing, particularly among younger birth cohorts. It is essential to advocate weight management a hypertension control, particularly in the younger generation.