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Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Life for Cement-Stabilized Cold Recycled Mixtures Using Probabilistic
Hao Liu1, Jiaolong Ren1, Lin Zhang1
1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China.
Materials (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 16, 2025
Summary
This study introduces an uncertainty quantification method for assessing pavement material fatigue life. The developed approach accurately predicts fatigue behavior in cement-stabilized cold recycled mixtures, enhancing design reliability.
Area of Science:
- Civil Engineering
- Materials Science
- Computational Mechanics
Background:
- Fatigue cracks are a primary failure mode in pavement structures, necessitating accurate fatigue life assessment.
- Standard fatigue tests for pavement materials are subject to significant uncertainties from construction and operational factors.
- Quantifying fatigue life under uncertainty is crucial for reliable pavement design.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for evaluating the fatigue life of pavement materials.
- To address the inherent uncertainties in fatigue testing of cement-stabilized cold recycled mixtures (CSCRMs).
- To utilize probabilistic programming for characterizing fatigue life uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Developed a UQ method using PyMC3, a probabilistic programming package.
- Employed probabilistic programming to model fatigue life uncertainty based on test data and established fatigue formulas.
- Quantified uncertainty by determining unknown coefficients within the fatigue life formula.
Main Results:
- Achieved coefficients of determination (R²) greater than 0.96 for fatigue life predictions.
- Determined coefficients with maximum and average errors below 11% and 7%, respectively.
- Verified that predicted fatigue life closely matches experimental data.
Conclusions:
- The developed UQ method accurately evaluates fatigue life and its uncertainty in CSCRMs.
- The method simplifies complex statistical computations, offering a practical approach for pavement engineering.
- Enhanced understanding of CSCRM fatigue behavior and improved pavement design reliability.
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