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Stagnating declines in cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States expanded the black-white life expectancy
1Department of Community Health, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
Objective:
To assess how stagnation in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality declines since 2010 impacted racial disparities in life expectancy between Black and White Americans.
Methods:
We analyzed U.S. vital statistics from 2000 to 2022 to compare age-standardized CVD mortality trends in Black and White middle-aged and older adults. Using life tables, we then estimated racial differences in life expectancy under observed mortality conditions and under a counterfactual scenario in which CVD mortality had continued to decline in 2010-2022 at pre-2010 rates.
Results:
In 2000-2009, CVD mortality was declining more quickly among Black Americans, and the Black-White life expectancy gap narrowed by 1.39 years for women and 1.44 years for men. Progress slowed after 2010. Had pre-2010 CVD mortality trends continued, Black women would have lived 2.04 years longer in 2019, narrowing the 1.88-year Black-White life expectancy gap by 0.43 years. If improvements had continued through 2022, Black women would have lived 2.83 years longer, translating to a 0.64-year reduction in the Black-White life expectancy gap. Men exhibited a similar pattern with a smaller effect.
Conclusions:
The post-2010 slowdown in CVD mortality declines disproportionately limited longevity gains for Black Americans, especially Black women.
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