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Analysis of Mortality Trajectory Patterns in the Middle East and North Africa: Which Diseases Are the Deadliest?

Sami Khedhiri1

  • 1School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.

Value in Health Regional Issues
|October 17, 2025
PubMed

Insights

This study clusters Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries by mortality patterns. Neurological conditions, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases are leading causes requiring targeted health interventions.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Mortality patterns vary significantly across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
  • Understanding disease-specific trends is crucial for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To cluster MENA countries based on mortality trajectory patterns for communicable diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries.
  • To identify leading causes of death within distinct country clusters.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal cluster analysis of annual death counts from 2007-2023 in MENA countries.
  • Identification of optimal clusters exhibiting similar mortality trajectory patterns.

Main Results:

  • Distinct mortality trajectory patterns were identified across MENA country clusters.
  • Neurological conditions, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases emerged as significant causes of mortality in specific clusters.

Conclusions:

  • The identified mortality trends necessitate targeted health interventions in MENA countries.
  • Effective management strategies are required to mitigate the rising fatalities from priority diseases.
Abstract

Keywords:
MENA regiondeath-leading causeshealth policylongitudinal cluster analysismortality trajectory pattern

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