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Quantitative viral dynamics: Methods for parameter estimation.
Angela Tower1, Katherine Owens2, Shadisadat Esmaeili2
1Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164, USA.
Virology
|October 17, 2025
Summary
Mathematical modeling of viral dynamics helps understand virus infection mechanisms, including replication and immune responses. This review guides choosing the best modeling approach for analyzing viral load data.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Mathematical Biology
- Immunology
Background:
- Mathematical models of viral dynamics analyze quantitative viral load data to understand virus infection.
- This process reveals viral replication speed, cell proliferation/death rates, immune responses, and treatment efficacy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review the theoretical foundations of viral dynamics model fitting and parameter estimation.
- To explain different model fitting approaches, their strengths, and limitations.
- To guide the selection of appropriate modeling strategies based on data and research questions.
Main Methods:
- Outlines theoretical foundations for model fitting and parameter estimation.
- Explains three common fitting approaches: individual fitting, population mixed effects fitting, and feature fitting.
- Reviews fitting algorithms and available software packages for viral dynamics modeling.
Main Results:
- Discusses model types, parameter identifiability, and the importance of a good model fit.
- Highlights the utility of multi-dimensional data for future modeling efforts.
- Provides guidelines for selecting the optimal modeling approach.
Conclusions:
- Viral dynamics modeling is crucial for inferring mechanisms of virus infection.
- Understanding model fitting approaches and parameter estimation is key for accurate analysis.
- Choosing the right method ensures robust insights into viral pathogenesis and treatment.

