Thinking Through Historical Analogies: A Longitudinal Analysis of Sense-Making During the Pandemic

Historical analogies (HAs) are cultural tools for making sense of a current situation by drawing comparisons to a past event. Their use in communication and understanding can be observed since ancient times and in societies around the world, especially in times of crisis. The present paper explores the role they played in people's everyday thinking during the COVID-19 pandemic, including what HAs were used, how they changed over time, who used them, and to what effect. To do this it draws on a longitudinal project in Germany that included a national representative survey (N = 1080) and follow-up interviews (N = 38) done at three data collection points. The interviews were coded for HAs, the results of which are presented in three steps: first, an overview of the HAs used and their change over time is given; second, characteristics of the most frequent users are outlined; and third, a case study of the most frequent user is presented. The article highlights the everyday use of HAs by people through time, their social distribution between majorities and active minorities, their link to conspiracy mentality and their personal psychological functions.