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High-Resolution Mapping of Fossil Fuel CO2 Using Plant Radiocarbon and Bayesian Inversion: Toward a City-Scale

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Accurate fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2ff) emissions measurement in cities is crucial. This study uses plant radiocarbon (14C) and Bayesian inversion to validate urban CO2ff inventories, revealing industrial sources dominate in Shenzhen.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Radiocarbon Dating

Background:

  • Accurate quantification of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2ff) emissions is vital for climate policy and mitigation progress.
  • Urban-scale emission inventories often suffer from significant uncertainties, necessitating independent validation methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a high-resolution mapping of CO2ff emissions in Shenzhen.
  • To validate existing urban CO2ff emission inventories using an independent method.

Main Methods:

  • Collection of 70 herbaceous plant samples across Shenzhen on a 5x5 km2 grid in 2022.
  • Integration of plant radiocarbon (14C) observations with Bayesian inversion for CO2ff signal assimilation.
  • Performance of multiple sensitivity tests to ensure the robustness of the inversion results.

Main Results:

  • Inferred emissions indicate a clear dominance of industrial sources, with strong spatial correlations to industrial facility density and coemitted pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2).
  • The citywide total CO2ff emissions were estimated at 59.2 ± 4.0 Mt CO2/year, falling between the MEIC and ODIAC inventory estimates.
  • Demonstration of herbaceous plant 14C measurements as a cost-effective and scalable constraint for urban CO2ff at fine spatial resolution.

Conclusions:

  • The observation-driven approach, combining plant 14C measurements and Bayesian inversion, enables robust, independent validation of bottom-up emission inventories.
  • This method supports city-scale carbon auditing and science-based governance, especially in urban regions with limited data.
  • Radiocarbon measurements in plants offer a novel tool for precise urban carbon emission assessments and climate policy support.