The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime: A Difference-in-Difference...

Area of Science:

• Urban planning and criminology
• Public health and environmental studies

Background:

• Vacant lots are prevalent in urban areas and can be associated with increased crime rates.
• Understanding the impact of urban redevelopment on crime is crucial for public health initiatives.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the relationship between the redevelopment of vacant lots and changes in violent and firearm-related crime.
• To assess the potential of urban renewal projects in crime prevention.

Main Methods:

• A quasi-experimental study utilizing a difference-in-difference (DID) design.
• Analysis of 254 redeveloped vacant lots in Philadelphia (2007-2023) and corresponding police-reported crime data.
• Staggered DID estimator applied to measure the impact of redevelopment on crime subtypes.

Main Results:

• Vacant lot redevelopment showed a significant negative association with aggravated assault (DID = -56.55 crimes/sq mi/year).
• Redevelopment also significantly reduced firearm aggravated assault (DID = -35.11 crimes/sq mi/year) and overall firearm violent crime (DID = -27.26 crimes/sq mi/year).
• No significant associations were found for other crime outcomes analyzed.

Conclusions:

• The findings support the hypothesis that redeveloping vacant lots can help prevent or displace violent crime.
• Investments in the built environment, such as urban renewal projects, may serve as a strategy for violence reduction.