Second-Order Zero-Sum Misbeliefs: People Overestimate Others' Zero-Sum Beliefs

Area of Science:

• Social Psychology
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Zero-sum beliefs, the idea that one person's gain necessitates another's loss, are prevalent.
• Understanding the overestimation of these beliefs is crucial for explaining cooperation deficits.

Purpose of the Study:

• To systematically examine the overestimation of others' zero-sum beliefs.
• To identify the psychological mechanisms driving this overestimation.
• To investigate the behavioral consequences of this cognitive bias.

Main Methods:

• Conducted 12 empirical studies with a total of 2,615 participants.
• Utilized diverse experimental designs, surveys, and implicit measures.
• Employed abstract game contexts and everyday settings to assess behavior.

Main Results:

• Consistently demonstrated that individuals overestimate others' zero-sum beliefs at both explicit and implicit levels.
• Identified construing others at a high construal level as a key psychological mechanism.
• Showed that overestimating zero-sum beliefs significantly reduces cooperative behavior.

Conclusions:

• Individuals possess a stable tendency to overestimate others' zero-sum beliefs.
• This overestimation is driven by construing others as purely self-interested.
• Interventions focusing on social norms can potentially correct this bias and enhance cooperation.