Spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes and subsequent ecosystem service value dynamics in Musanze District,...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecology
• Remote Sensing

Background:

• Musanze District, Rwanda, faces ecological fragility and biodiversity loss.
• Significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes have occurred over the past two decades.
• These LULC changes impact crucial ecosystem service values (ESVs).

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the dynamics of LULC change in Musanze District from 2004 to 2024.
• To quantify the associated changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs).
• To identify drivers and implications of these environmental shifts.

Main Methods:

• Supervised classification of Landsat satellite imagery (2004-2024) using ArcGIS 10.8 for LULC analysis.
• Meta-analytical function transfer method, calibrated with East African data, for ESV estimation.
• Statistical analysis to explore the correlation between LULC and ESV dynamics.

Main Results:

• A 22% increase in cropland and a 39% decrease in forest cover were observed.
• Total ESVs decreased by 54.24% (from $215,680.24 million to $98,699.69 million USD).
• Significant declines in food provision and pollination services were noted, driven by forest loss.

Conclusions:

• Unplanned agricultural expansion and urban development have substantial ecological costs.
• Weak environmental regulations and urban sprawl exacerbate ecosystem degradation.
• Sustainable farming, ecological restoration, and integrated urban planning are crucial for Rwanda's environmental future.