Influencing factors of ecosystem services and their spatiotemporal change assessment based on land use in Rwanda

Understanding the factors that influence changes in ecosystem services is crucial for sustainable management, particularly in densely populated and vulnerable regions to those influencing factors. Recent declines in ecosystem services in Rwanda have been primarily attributed to climate change and land use alterations stemming from human activities. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem services, specifically carbon storage, water yield, and soil retention, from 1994 to 2020 using the InVEST and RUSLE models. The results revealed a significant increase in cropland and built-up areas by 137% and 282.3%, respectively, contrasted with a dramatic decline in forestland of 64.7% and decreases in grasslands and wetlands by 32.9% and 6.9%, respectively. In terms of temporal changes, water yield declined from 407 to 228.9 MT, while carbon storage and soil retention exhibited fluctuations during 1994 and 2020. The Northwestern province showed notable spatial changes in ecosystem services. The analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between soil retention and water yield but a negative correlation between carbon storage and precipitation, indicating that land use changes have a more significant impact on carbon storage than climatic factors. To improve ecosystem service stability, strategies such as forest expansion, environmental protection, and careful urban planning are recommended, while caution against inappropriate cropland development and urbanization is advised.