Potential Distribution and Response to Climate Change in Puccinellia tenuiflora in China Projected Using Optimized...

Global climate change is accelerating and human pressures are intensifying, exerting profound impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem service functions. The accurate prediction of species distributions has thus become a critical research direction in ecological conservation and restoration. This study selected Puccinellia tenuiflora, a species distributed across China, as its research subject. Utilizing 169 occurrence records and 10 environmental variables, we applied a parameter-optimized MaxEnt model to simulate the species' current and future (2050s-2090s) potential suitable habitats under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. The results identified the human footprint index (HFI, 43.3%) and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 26.9%) as the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The current suitable area is primarily concentrated in northern China, covering approximately 258.26 × 10⁴ km². Under all future scenarios, a contraction of suitable habitat is projected, with the most significant reduction observed under SSP585 by the 2090s (a decrease of 56.2%). The distribution centroid is projected to shift northeastward by up to 145.36 km. This study elucidates the response mechanism of P. tenuiflora distribution to climate change and human activities. The projected habitat contraction and spatial displacement highlight the potential vulnerability of this species to future climate change. These findings, derived from a rigorously optimized and spatially validated model, provide a scientific basis for the conservation, reintroduction, and adaptive management of P. tenuiflora under climate change.