Trends in Alzheimer's disease mortality in Espírito Santo, Brazil: a time series study

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is one of the leading causes of dementia in older adults and is associated with a significant increase in the number of deaths globally.

This study analyzed mortality from AD in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2013 and 2022.

This ecological time series study used data from the Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, identifying deaths per the International Classification of Diseases 10^th Revision (ICD-10) codes for AD (G30, G30.0, G30.1, G30.8, G30.9). Time trend analyses were estimated using Prais-Winsten linear regression to assess annual variations, and the Joinpoint regression model was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC).

A total of 6,083 deaths from AD were identified during the study period. We observed a progressive increase in the absolute number of deaths, up from 375 in 2013 to 802 in 2022, as well as in the mortality rate, which rose from 9.77 to 21.02 per 100 thousand inhabitants. We identified a statistically significant upward trend (p<0.001), with a mean annual increase of 49.68 deaths (β₁=49.68) and an APC of 8.84%. Most deaths were recorded among women, with a mean age of 85.13 years, predominantly among white individuals and widows. Deaths occurred mainly in hospitals, followed by homes.

The study showed a significant increase in mortality from AD in Espírito Santo over the years, reinforcing the importance of preventive strategies aimed at health care and healthy aging.