Risk Information Dissemination in Transitive Disasters-A System Dynamics Approach

Area of Science:

• Disaster Management and Risk Communication
• System Dynamics Modeling
• Public Health and Safety

Background:

• Transitive disasters pose significant threats due to risk information dissemination.
• Effective risk communication strategies are vital for mitigating adverse impacts and ensuring public safety.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate risk information flow during transitive disasters using a system dynamics model.
• To analyze the impact of information dissemination and population responses on evacuation and disaster outcomes.
• To identify key factors influencing evacuation effectiveness and disaster exposure across different groups and regions.

Main Methods:

• Adaptation of the SEIR model to create the Uninformed-Contacts-Spreaders-Rationals (UCSR) model.
• System dynamics approach to simulate risk information flow, media influence, and risk perception.
• Examination of interregional and intergroup differences in response to risk information.

Main Results:

• Timely actions by different population groups significantly reduce vulnerability to risk information.
• Increased information push frequency, risk awareness, and promotion of Rational behavior accelerate evacuation and increase Rational individuals.
• Combined media dissemination and evacuation infrastructure provide the most effective risk mitigation.

Conclusions:

• Tailored risk communication strategies and disaster preparedness plans are essential for different regions and population groups.
• Optimizing information flow and encouraging proactive behavior can substantially reduce casualties and economic losses.
• Integrated approaches involving media and infrastructure are key to mitigating transitive disaster impacts.