A new framework for modelling traffic conflict interval time based on correlated random parameter duration model with...

Traffic conflict interval time on highways not only impacts traffic flow stability, heightens the risk of secondary conflicts, and adds uncertainty. To explore the impact of various factors on conflict interval time, this study proposes the correlated random parameters accelerated failure time (AFT) model with heterogeneity in means and variances (CRPHMV), aiming to uncover the correlations and heterogeneity among influencing factors. Given the High D trajectory data, the CRPHMV AFT model demonstrates superior fitting performance compared to other advanced models. Specifically, four variables-mean speed, acceleration variance, traffic flow, and high-risk conflicts exhibit heterogeneity effects. Further analysis reveals that the mean heterogeneity of medium-risk conflictsversus acceleration variance indicators, and vehicle type versus acceleration variance indicators, tends to shorten the conflict interval time, while the mean heterogeneity of speed difference between lanes versus acceleration variance indicators is associated with an increase in the conflict interval time. Interaction effects between the unobserved heterogeneity of mean speed and high-risk conflicts indicators, as well as, mean speed and acceleration variance indicators, were found to significantly impact conflict interval time. These research findings can provide valuable insights for traffic management authorities to further enhance road safety and make informed decisions regarding traffic control measures and regulations.