Climatic factors and their impact on cutaneous Leishmaniasis: Predicting the number of patients using ARIMA model

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic disease transmitted through phlebotomine sandfly bites. Identifying factors influencing and predicting the disease incidence is crucial. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climatic factors on CL incidence and predict patient numbers in Damghan County. In this study, we collected CL cases data from the Damghan County Health Network on monthly and annual basis from 2012 to 2021. Climatic data were obtained from the Meteorological Organization, the Department of Natural Resources and Watershed Management, and the National Statistics Center of Iran. Data analysis was performed using SPSS - 22 and R - 4.3.1 to examine significant relationships between climatic variables and CL incidence, as well as to predict the number of patients in the coming years. The findings revealed significant correlations between CL incidence and several climatic factors, including air pressure (P < 0.001), relative humidity (P < 0.001), sunshine hours (P = 0.002), maximum temperature (P = 0.003), average temperature (P = 0.005), minimum temperature (P = 0.006), precipitation (P = 0.022), and maximum wind speed (P = 0.029.). Additionally, the ARIMA model predicted approximately 370 and 180 patients in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The annual incidence of CL can be largely attributed to seasonal and annual climatic variations. This highlights the necessity of implementing sandfly control measures before the onset of summer when conditions become optimal for the disease outbreak. Also, predicting the possible number of people suffering from the disease in the coming years can play an effective role in planning for the prevention and control of the disease.