High-resolution spatial modeling of household lawn fertilizer behavior: Implications for targeting nitrogen-reduction...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Ecology
• Agricultural Science

Background:

• Household fertilizer application is a major source of nonpoint nitrogen pollution in urban areas.
• Residential lawns occupy a significant portion of urban landscapes, impacting water quality.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel methodology for an integrated model predicting parcel-level residential lawn fertilizer use and nitrogen application.
• To compare the effectiveness of different nitrogen fertilizer reduction strategies in coastal Connecticut.

Main Methods:

• A two-part hurdle regression model was estimated using household survey data to predict fertilizer behavior.
• Model predictions were integrated with high-resolution land cover data and demographic simulations for parcel-level estimates.
• Nitrogen reduction scenarios were compared using optimal, rule-based, and municipal-level targeting strategies.

Main Results:

• Significant variations in fertilizer and nitrogen application were observed across household types and municipalities.
• A small subpopulation of households, primarily those with newer, larger homes on large exurban lots, accounts for the majority of nitrogen application.
• Targeting strategies significantly influence the effectiveness of nitrogen reduction programs.

Conclusions:

• Integrated approaches can provide valuable policy guidance for household-level fertilizer use management.
• Identifying and targeting high-contributing households is crucial for successful nitrogen pollution reduction programs.
• The developed methodology offers a scalable approach for predicting and managing landscape-level fertilizer impacts.