Correlation Between First-line Immunotherapy and Second-line TKI Outcomes in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have improved survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), with nivolumab (NIVO) plus ipilimumab (IPI) showing benefits in intermediate- and poor-risk patients. Despite first-line efficacy, progression is common, requiring second-line therapies. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are commonly administered after ICIs; however, the relationship between progression-free survival (PFS) in first- and second-line settings is not well defined. This study examined the correlation of PFS in patients with mRCC treated with ICIs followed by TKIs.

This retrospective multicenter study analyzed 66 patients with mRCC who received NIVO + IPI as first-line therapy and subsequent TKIs between September 2018 and February 2023. Patients were stratified according to the International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium (IMDC) risk classification.

Median PFS for second-line TKIs was 6.9 months, and overall survival was 17.7 months. While no significant correlation was observed between first- and second-line PFS in the overall cohort or the IMDC intermediate-risk subgroup, a significant positive correlation was found in the poor-risk group (Spearman's rho=0.677, p=0.002).

Treatment outcomes in poor-risk patients may exhibit a predictable response pattern across therapy lines, potentially informing personalized treatment strategies.