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Import Competition and Racial Disparities in Mortality: Evidence From the Japanese Trade Shock.

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Increased Japanese imports correlate with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) and drug-related deaths, particularly among Black men in the U.S. Accident mortality decreased, primarily among white individuals.

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Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • International trade significantly impacts domestic economies and public health outcomes.
  • Previous research has explored trade's effects on employment and wages, but less on mortality.
  • Racial and regional disparities in health outcomes warrant detailed investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal relationship between increased Japanese imports and mortality rates in the U.S.
  • To identify specific causes of death affected by trade, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), accidents, and deaths of despair.
  • To examine racial and demographic disparities in these trade-related mortality effects.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a shift-share instrumental variables approach to analyze U.S. mortality data.
  • Examined the association between Japanese import competition and various mortality rates.
  • Disaggregated findings by race, age, sex, and industry concentration.

Main Results:

  • Higher Japanese imports linked to increased CVD mortality and drug-related deaths, especially among Black individuals.
  • A $1000 increase in import competition associated with significant rises in CVD and drug-related deaths per 100,000 Black individuals.
  • Mortality from accidents decreased, primarily among white individuals; effects concentrated in male populations and specific industries.

Conclusions:

  • Trade-induced economic changes have differential impacts on U.S. mortality, with significant racial and demographic disparities.
  • Cardiovascular disease and drug-related mortality increases are disproportionately borne by Black men in import-impacted regions.
  • Policy interventions may be needed to mitigate adverse health consequences of trade, particularly for vulnerable populations.