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A prediction method for long-term surface subsidence considering the mining-induced stratum creep effect and its
Zhongyu Liang1, Xiaorong Yang2, Yongjun Liu2
1School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, Tianjin RENAI College, Tianjin, 301636, China. liang_zhongyu@163.com.
Scientific Reports
|November 6, 2025
Summary
Considering rock creep, this study established a nonlinear viscoelastic-plastic (NVEP) model to predict surface subsidence. Results show railway construction in goaf areas should be delayed five years post-mining for safety.
Area of Science:
- Geotechnical Engineering
- Rock Mechanics
- Mining Engineering
Background:
- Surface subsidence prediction accuracy is crucial for infrastructure development in mining areas.
- Rock creep significantly influences time-dependent deformation of overlying strata.
- Accurate prediction requires models that capture complex rock behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To establish a nonlinear viscoelastic-plastic (NVEP) model for three-stage rock creep behavior.
- To develop a method for creep parameter inversion in goaf areas.
- To predict long-term surface subsidence and inform construction timing.
Main Methods:
- Derivation of 3D creep constitutive equations for the NVEP model.
- Secondary development and implementation of the model on FLAC3D.
- Creep parameter inversion using creep simulation and a genetic algorithm.
Main Results:
- Numerical simulations predicted surface subsidence with an exponential decay trend.
- Subsidence stages identified: rapid (0-2 years), transitional (2-3 years), and stabilization (>4 years).
- Feasibility assessment for railway construction on goaf surface.
Conclusions:
- Railway construction on the studied goaf surface requires a minimum five-year delay after mining cessation.
- The NVEP model and inversion method provide a scientific basis for construction timing.
- Accounting for rock creep is vital for safe surface structure operation.
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