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Updated: Jan 11, 2026
Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
Survival risk prediction nomogram for patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving
Zhe He1, Qihang Zhu2,3, Junhan Wu1
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Background:
Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) has long been considered the standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), but its long-term survival benefits remain limited and associated with potential safety concerns. The emergence of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (NICT) has shown encouraging short-term efficacy; however, evidence regarding its long-term outcomes and survival-related risk factors is still underexplored. This study aimed to evaluate survival outcomes of patients with resectable ESCC treated with NICT followed by surgery and to develop a nomogram for individualized survival risk prediction.
Methods:
Clinical data and follow-up information were retrospectively collected for 88 patients with ESCC who underwent NICT followed by McKeown esophagectomy. This study was conducted from January 2019 to December 2022 at Department of Thoracic Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital. The median follow-up was 31.5 (range, 12-47) months. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate clinical data and survival outcomes.
Results:
The study included 88 patients, equally divided by gender, with 44 males and 44 females. Multivariate regression analysis identified age, number of neoadjuvant treatment cycles, clinical primary tumor stage (cT), clinical lymph node stage (cN), and pathological lymph node stage (pN) as independent risk factors for survival in patients receiving NICT (P<0.05). A nomogram predictive model was constructed, demonstrating a high predictive value with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.927 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.873-0.982].
Conclusions:
NICT offers significant survival benefits for patients with resectable ESCC. The study identified age, neoadjuvant treatment cycles, cT, cN, and pN as independent risk factors impacting survival. The predictive model developed in this study can aid in selecting suitable postoperative adjuvant therapies, potentially enhancing treatment outcomes.
