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Updated: Jan 11, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[THE THREATS OF LOSS OF LABOR POTENTIAL OF ADULT ABLE-BODIED POPULATION OF RUSSIA AND PROCEDURE OF THEIR ESTIMATION]
T P Vasilieva1, A A Kalininskaya1
1N. A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health, 105064, Moscow, Russia.
Abstract:
The article substantiates actuality of calculation of threats of loss of labor potential of adult able-bodied population of Russia. The technical modes of their calculation are presented. The calculated indicators are ranked. The availability of publications concerning loss of vital and labor potential of different age groups of population in Russia points to necessity in methodological development of calculation of threats of loss of labor potential of adult able-bodied population of the Russian Federation. The developed technique of calculating loss of labor potential is based on report data of Rosstat, statistical materials of the Federal State Budget Institution "The Central Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics" of the Minzdrav of Russia. Also data from the Order of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Russia from August 27, 2019 №. 585n "On classifications and criteria applied under implementation of medical social expertise of citizens by Federal state institutions of medical social expertise". The stages of calculation of morbidity (general) of adult able-bodied population according to selected from the Order №585n nosological forms relevant to the IV degree of severity of "disorders of functions of organism caused by diseases, consequences of traumas or defects" (it corresponds to group I of disability), determining risks of complete loss of labor potential. The study demonstrated that the greatest threat of loss of labor potential of the adult able-bodied population is associated with hypertensive disease, ischemic heart disease, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, arthrosis, obesity, asthma and asthmatic status and other diseases. The results of the study can be used at the Federal and regional levels in formation of management decisions targeted to prevent loss of labor potential of population of the Russian Federation.
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