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Updated: Jan 11, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[THE AGE-RELATED SHIFTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF FEMALE POPULATION OF FERTILITY AGE IN POPULATION OF SMALL TOWNS OF THE
G M Gaidarov1, T I Alekseevskaya1, E L Vygovsky2
1The Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education "The Irkutsk State Medical University" of the Minzdrav of Russia, 664003, Irkutsk, Russia.
Abstract:
The article notes that population of females of fertility age and its structure and dynamics is the basis for determination of tendencies and prognostication of total fertility. For the first time, technique of determination of shifts in demographic structure of female population of fertility age was applied. The study of dynamics of share of female population of fertility age in total number of female population in small towns revealed its decreasing. The special indicators of dynamics - mass of structural shift in female population, rate of structural shift, intensity of structural shift - demonstrated that their dynamics are taking shape in population of small towns of the Eastern Siberia differently. During 2000-2023, shifts in population affected total fertility rate. The effect of structural shifts in ratio of female population of fertility age on total fertility rate demonstrated that in 9 selected territories in 3 of them unfavorable shifts affected total fertility rate. The reliable correlation interdependence was established. The established interdependence are to be considered in generation of prognosis of population in territories of the subject of the Russian Federation.
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