Rethinking El Salvador's Homicide Problem: Age, Homicide, and Crime Control

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Demography
• Public Health

Background:

• Latin America faces high violence rates, with El Salvador having one of the world's highest homicide rates.
• Existing research often focuses on inequality and gangs, overlooking demographic factors like youth bulges.
• The age-crime curve suggests a link between age distribution and crime rates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between El Salvador's population age distribution and homicide trends from 1995 to 2018.
• To assess the impact of youth population proportions (ages 15-19) on homicide rates.
• To examine the influence of inequality and militarized policing (Mano Dura) on lethal violence.

Main Methods:

• Data sourced from WHO, UN World Population Prospects, and World Bank.
• Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, contour plots, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression.
• Newey-West heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors were used to account for data properties.

Main Results:

• A significant positive association was found between the proportion of youth (15-19) and annual homicide rates.
• Militarized policing strategies, such as Mano Dura, were also linked to increased violence.
• Demographic structure significantly influences homicide trends in El Salvador.

Conclusions:

• Population demographics, specifically youth bulges, are a key factor in understanding El Salvador's high homicide rates.
• Militarized policing tactics may intensify violence rather than reduce it, questioning their effectiveness.
• Findings challenge the sustainability of Mano Dura and similar punitive policies for crime reduction.