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Impact of the Ripple Effect on the Resilience of Multimodal Container Port Operations: A System Dynamics Simulation
Jinglin Zhang1, Xuri Xin1, Rameshwar Dubey2,3
1Liverpool Logistics, Offshore and Marine (LOOM) Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 21, 2025
Summary
This study introduces a new method to measure port resilience by quantifying ripple effects across shipping, rail, and trucking subsystems. It helps identify critical areas for intervention to prevent systemic failures in multimodal container ports.
Area of Science:
- Maritime Logistics and Supply Chain Management
- Systems Engineering and Operations Research
- Risk Management and Disaster Resilience
Background:
- Current port resilience assessments overlook inter-subsystem ripple effects in multimodal operations.
- Existing research often lacks micro-level operational detail, focusing on macro perspectives.
- Understanding cascading failures across liner shipping, feeder shipping, railways, and trucking is crucial for comprehensive resilience.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and validate an integrated methodology for quantifying ripple effects across multimodal port subsystems.
- To assess the resilience of container ports by considering micro-level operational impacts and interdependencies.
- To provide actionable insights for preventing systemic failures and enhancing long-term port resilience.
Main Methods:
- Development of a system dynamics (SD) simulation model integrating key resilience variables.
- Creation of a resilience analysis model to translate system performance into a quantifiable metric.
- Application of Evidential Reasoning (ER) for a comprehensive assessment of overall port system resilience.
- Utilization of real operational and accident data for validation under various disruption scenarios.
Main Results:
- The proposed methodology effectively assesses port performance under diverse disruption scenarios.
- Critical subsystems influencing overall port resilience were successfully identified.
- The approach supports the development of timely and targeted recovery strategies.
- Validation using historical failures and field investigations confirmed the methodology's effectiveness.
Conclusions:
- The integrated methodology provides a robust framework for evaluating multimodal port resilience.
- Quantifying ripple effects across subsystems is essential for understanding and mitigating systemic risks.
- The approach offers valuable insights for improving operational resilience and preventing cascading failures in port systems.
- This methodology is adaptable for assessing and enhancing resilience in various port environments.
Keywords:
Evidential Reasoningmultimodal container portresilience assessmentripple effectsystem dynamicsMore Related Videos
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