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Benchmarking Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Models on Neural Activity
Ziyu Lu1, Anna J Li2, Alexander E Ladd2
1Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Arxiv
|November 24, 2025
Summary
Deep learning models show promise for neural activity forecasting, outperforming traditional methods. This advancement could enable new brain-computer interfaces and a deeper understanding of neural dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Neuroscience
- Machine Learning
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Neural activity forecasting is crucial for understanding brain function and developing closed-loop systems.
- Deep learning excels in time series forecasting but is underutilized for neural data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically evaluate deep learning models for neural activity forecasting.
- To compare their performance against classical statistical models.
Main Methods:
- Evaluated eight probabilistic deep learning models, including foundation models, on mouse cortical activity data.
- Utilized wide-field imaging for spontaneous neural activity recordings.
- Compared deep learning models against four classical statistical models and two baselines.
Main Results:
- Several deep learning models consistently outperformed classical approaches across various prediction horizons.
- The top-performing model achieved accurate forecasts up to 1.5 seconds into the future.
- Demonstrated the potential of deep learning for predicting complex neural dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Deep learning models offer a powerful tool for advancing neural activity forecasting.
- These findings support future applications in brain-computer interfaces and neural control.
- Opens new research avenues for exploring the temporal structure of neural activity.

