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Systematic analysis of full-sibling identification by adding genetic markers and reference relatives.

Qianqian Kong1,2, Shubo Wen1,3, Zhenmin Zhao1

  • 1Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine, Shanghai Forensic Service Platform, Academy of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice, Shanghai, China.

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|November 24, 2025
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Summary

This study refines full-sibling (FS) identification using identical by state (IBS) and likelihood ratio (LR) methods. Optimal cut-off values improve accuracy for routine kinship analysis and forensic applications.

Keywords:
forensic geneticsforensic sciencesfull-sibling identificationidentical by state (IBS)kinship testinglikelihood ratio (LR)short tandem repeat (STR)

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Genetics
  • Population Genetics

Background:

  • Full-sibling (FS) identification is vital in kinship analysis but current methods lack routine accuracy.
  • Enhancing the precision of FS identification is crucial for forensic applications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess optimal cut-off values for FS identification using identical by state (IBS) and likelihood ratio (LR) methods.
  • To evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of FS identification with varying numbers of short tandem repeats (STRs) under different error rates.

Main Methods:

  • Incorporated IBS and LR methods to determine optimal cut-off values for FS identification.
  • Calculated sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and effectiveness across 19 to 55 STRs.
  • Validated cut-off values using authentic Han population pedigrees from East China.

Main Results:

  • Dependable and practical cut-off values were identified for IBS and LR methods with error rates below 0.01%.
  • The study analyzed the influence of half-sibling relationships and reference relatives on FS identification.
  • Validated cut-off values demonstrated high accuracy in authentic pedigrees.

Conclusions:

  • Optimized cut-off values enhance the reliability of FS identification in forensic contexts.
  • The findings support the practical application of improved FS identification methods in China.
  • An updated technical specification for FS identification in China provides a valuable resource for forensic testing.