A survival analysis of T1 stage breast cancer and nomogram development: based on the SEER database

Breast Cancer (BC) is a widespread non-cutaneous malignancy. T1 stage of small tumors are generally considered to have a favorable prognosis, but controversy persists regarding their treatment and prognosis.

The cohort included clinicopathological characteristics of BC patients along with treatment information from T1 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program (SEER) database from 2010‒2015. Construct a nomogram based on the variables identified by the multifactorial analysis results.

A total of 164,906 female patient records were obtained for enrolment. Patients in the training set of T1 had a 3-, 5- and 10-years of OS for 95.2 %, 90.9 % and 84.4 % as well as a 3-, 5- and 10-years of BCSS for 98.4 %, 97.0 % and 95.4 %. Multivariate analysis found age, race, grade, T-stage, N-stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, Estrogen Receptor (ER) status, Progesterone Receptor (PR) status and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor-2 (HER2) status to be associated with OS. And age, grade, T-stage, N-stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, diagnosis to treatment, ER-status, PR-status, and HER2-status are associated with BCSS. Independent prognostic risk factors incorporated into the construction of a nomogram. The AUC values for 3-, 5- and 10-years of OS and BCSS were greater than 0.7. The ROC, calibration and DCA curves verified that the nomogram had better predictability and benefits.

The outcomes demonstrated a disparity in prognosis between groups T1a, T1b, and T1c. The constructed nomogram is able to predict OS and BCSS for 3-, 5- and 10-year periods reasonably well.