Evaluating the Central-Marginal Hypothesis: Introgression and Genetic Variation at the Trailing Edge of Quercus...

The central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation in range-edge populations due to ecological marginality and limited gene flow. Deviations from this pattern, however, can result from historical demographic processes, variation in reproductive strategies or interspecific hybridization. The genus Quercus, known for hybridization and long-distance pollination, offers an excellent model to examine the spatial patterns of genetic diversity, structure and introgression across species distributions. Here, we investigate these dynamics in Quercus bicolor Willd., a widespread eastern North American oak. Using RADseq, we genotyped 142 individuals from 12 sites at the fragmented trailing range edge and nine sites from the range core. To detect introgression, we incorporated reference data from six sympatric white oak species. We reveal extensive introgression, particularly from Q. lyrata Walt., in nearly all southern edge populations, but none in core populations despite sympatry with closely related congeners. Southern populations also showed increased genetic structure and differentiation, but not reduced diversity or increased inbreeding, even when only examining non-admixed individuals. Regression analyses reveal relationships between introgressed ancestry and heterozygosity, inbreeding and differentiation, indicating that introgression may buffer range-edge populations against genetic erosion by introducing novel alleles. Hindcast, current and forecast ecological niche models demonstrate temporally changing degrees of overlap between the geographic range of Q. lyrata and Q. bicolor and suggest higher hybridization potential in the future. These findings offer mixed support for the CMH while underscoring the evolutionary relevance of introgression in shaping genetic landscapes at range margins with significant implications for conservation.