Absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism in children

Maya K Raad1, Stephanie Prozora1, E Vincent S Faustino1

  • 1Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.

Thrombosis Research
|November 25, 2025
PubMed

Insights

This study accurately predicted the absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) in children. This prediction tool can help evaluate thromboprophylaxis benefits and guide future research on bleeding risk.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Thrombosis Research
  • Clinical Risk Prediction Modeling
  • Hospital-Acquired Conditions

Background:

  • Assessing the absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is crucial for determining the net clinical benefit of pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis in pediatric patients.
  • The existing Children's Hospital Acquired Thrombosis (CHAT) risk assessment model (RAM) identified pediatric HA-VTE risk factors but was not designed for risk prediction.
  • There is a need for a model that accurately predicts the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a model for predicting the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
  • To identify key risk factors associated with the development of HA-VTE in this population.
  • To provide a tool for better risk stratification and management of HA-VTE in pediatric care.

Main Methods:

  • A single-center case-cohort study was conducted involving children aged ≤18 years admitted between 2013 and 2022.
  • Children with confirmed, symptomatic HA-VTE were identified as cases, and a 5% random sample of eligible admissions formed the subcohort.
  • Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression, incorporating CHAT RAM risk factors, were used to calculate the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE, with performance assessed via AUROC and AUPRC.

Main Results:

  • A total of 81 children with HA-VTE were identified from 23,287 admissions.
  • Adolescent age, limited mobility, and central venous catheter use were significantly associated with the time to HA-VTE.
  • The median absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE was 1.7% by day 12, with an AUROC of 0.81, indicating good predictive performance.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model accurately predicts the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
  • The findings highlight the importance of considering factors like age, mobility, and central venous catheter use in risk assessment.
  • Further research should focus on developing similar predictive models for bleeding events in pediatric patients.
Abstract

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