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Published on: March 21, 2025
Absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism in children
Maya K Raad1, Stephanie Prozora1, E Vincent S Faustino1
1Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Insights
This study accurately predicted the absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) in children. This prediction tool can help evaluate thromboprophylaxis benefits and guide future research on bleeding risk.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Thrombosis Research
- Clinical Risk Prediction Modeling
- Hospital-Acquired Conditions
Background:
- Assessing the absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is crucial for determining the net clinical benefit of pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis in pediatric patients.
- The existing Children's Hospital Acquired Thrombosis (CHAT) risk assessment model (RAM) identified pediatric HA-VTE risk factors but was not designed for risk prediction.
- There is a need for a model that accurately predicts the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a model for predicting the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
- To identify key risk factors associated with the development of HA-VTE in this population.
- To provide a tool for better risk stratification and management of HA-VTE in pediatric care.
Main Methods:
- A single-center case-cohort study was conducted involving children aged ≤18 years admitted between 2013 and 2022.
- Children with confirmed, symptomatic HA-VTE were identified as cases, and a 5% random sample of eligible admissions formed the subcohort.
- Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression, incorporating CHAT RAM risk factors, were used to calculate the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE, with performance assessed via AUROC and AUPRC.
Main Results:
- A total of 81 children with HA-VTE were identified from 23,287 admissions.
- Adolescent age, limited mobility, and central venous catheter use were significantly associated with the time to HA-VTE.
- The median absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE was 1.7% by day 12, with an AUROC of 0.81, indicating good predictive performance.
Conclusions:
- The developed model accurately predicts the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
- The findings highlight the importance of considering factors like age, mobility, and central venous catheter use in risk assessment.
- Further research should focus on developing similar predictive models for bleeding events in pediatric patients.
Background:
Absolute time-dependent risk of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is essential to evaluate the net clinical benefit of pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis. The multicenter Children's Hospital Acquired Thrombosis (CHAT) risk assessment model (RAM) identified risk factors for pediatric HA-VTE but was not designed to predict this risk. We aimed to predict the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE in hospitalized children.
Methods:
We conducted a single center case-cohort study of children ≤18 years old admitted from 2013 to 2022. Children with radiologically confirmed, symptomatic HA-VTE were considered cases. A 5 % random sample of eligible admissions formed the subcohort. Using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression with risk factors from the CHAT RAM and time to HA-VTE as outcome, we calculated the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE of each child. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration plot, and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).
Results:
We identified 81 children with HA-VTE from 23,287 admissions. Adolescent age, slightly limited mobility, and central venous catheter were associated with time to HA-VTE. Median absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE was 1.7 % (IQR: 1.0 %, 2.1 %) by day 12 of admission when the revised RAM performed best. AUROC by day 12 was 0.81 (95 % confidence interval, CI: 0.70, 0.93) with calibration slope of 1.13 (95 % CI: 0.38, 1.87), calibration intercept of 0.004 (95 % CI: -0.64, 0.65), and AUPRC of 0.04 (95 % CI: 0.004, 0.07).
Conclusions:
We accurately predicted the absolute time-dependent risk of HA-VTE. Similar predictions should be developed for bleeding.
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