Prediction of Microsatellite Instability in Colorectal Cancer Using Two Internally Validated Radiomic Models

Objectives: To develop two different radiomic models based on preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (PP CT) to predict microsatellite instability (MSI) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) before surgery. Methods: PP CT scans of 115 CC patients were segmented using 3DSlicer (v5.6.1). Model I included images from three different scanners (GE, Siemens, Philips), while Model II used only one scanner (GE). For Model I, 80 patients were used for training and 35 for internal validation; for Model II, 46 and 24 patients were used, respectively. Data on sex, age, tumour location, and MSI genomic status were collected. A total of 107 radiomic features (RFs) were extracted, and 30 and 35 RFs were identified as relevant for Models I and II, respectively, using the t-test or Mann-Whitney test (p < 0.05). The most robust RFs were selected using the LASSO regression method. Both models were internally validated. Results: Model I, based on 2 RFs and 1 clinical feature (LOCATION) achieved an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.65-0.87) in the training cohort and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.56-0.92) in the validation cohort. Model II, based on 3 RFs, achieved an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73-0.96) in the training cohort and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.50-0.94) in the validation cohort. Conclusions: Both radiomic models showed good performance in distinguishing between MSI and non-MSI tumours, potentially reducing the need for invasive histological testing and improving treatment timing. Despite achieving a higher AUC, Model II showed signs of overfitting when compared to Model I, which incorporated two RFs and one clinical feature (LOCATION). Radiomics may function as a non-invasive preoperative screening tool to inform decisions regarding MSI testing and treatment. Building radiomic models on larger, more diverse datasets is preferable to enhance generalizability and reduce overfitting.