Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries
C J van Calcar1,2, J Bernales3,4, C J Berends3
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. c.j.vancalcar@tudelft.nl.
Nature Communications
|November 27, 2025
Summary
Including solid Earth adjustments in ice sheet models delays Antarctic grounding line retreat by 50-130 years. This reduces the Antarctic Ice Sheet's contribution to sea-level rise by 9-23%.
Area of Science:
- * Glaciology and Earth system science.
- * Climate change impacts and sea-level rise research.
Background:
- * The Antarctic Ice Sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is significant but highly uncertain.
- * Current sea-level projections often neglect crucial factors like bedrock adjustment and Earth structure heterogeneity.
- * Ice sheet retreat can trigger bedrock uplift, potentially stabilizing the grounding line.
Purpose of the Study:
- * To investigate the impact of solid Earth heterogeneity on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability and sea-level contributions.
- * To quantify the delay in grounding line retreat and the reduction in sea-level rise when bedrock adjustment is considered.
- * To assess the significance of solid Earth feedback compared to climate model uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- * Development and application of a coupled ice-bedrock model.
- * Simulation of ice sheet behavior under various emission scenarios up to the year 2500.
- * Inclusion of heterogeneous Earth structures in the model.
Main Results:
- * Grounding line retreat is delayed by 50 to 130 years when considering solid Earth heterogeneity.
- * The barystatic sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is reduced by 9-23%.
- * Solid Earth feedback effects can be twice as significant as uncertainties arising from climate model differences.
Conclusions:
- * Realistic Earth structures are essential for accurate projections of Antarctic sea-level contributions.
- * Excluding bedrock adjustment leads to overestimation of near-term sea-level rise from Antarctica.
- * Centennial-scale sea-level rise projections require integrated ice-sheet and solid Earth modeling.
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