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Inhomogeneous spatio-temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence model incorporating seismicity-triggering slow slip
Isaías Bañales1, Tomoaki Nishikawa2, Yoshihiro Ito2
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, 611-0011, Japan. isaias@ciencias.unam.mx.
Scientific Reports
|November 29, 2025
Summary
Regular earthquakes may be triggered by slow slip events (SSEs). This study enhances seismic models to show increased background seismicity during SSEs, improving our understanding of earthquake mechanisms.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Earth Science
Background:
- Understanding the relationship between regular earthquakes and slow fault slip is crucial for seismic activity mechanisms.
- Interplate slow-slip events (SSEs) are hypothesized to trigger background seismic activity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present an extension of the spatio-temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model.
- To incorporate background seismicity as a piecewise constant function over time.
- To identify SSE occurrence periods using GNSS data and analyze changes in background seismicity.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data to identify SSE periods.
- Employing a maximum likelihood inference method with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for model inference.
- Inferring the branching process for aftershocks to estimate earthquake genealogy.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated an increase in background seismicity during SSE periods.
- Successfully applied the enhanced ETAS model to analyze seismic data from Guerrero, Mexico, and Boso Peninsula, Japan.
- Provided insights into earthquake genealogy through aftershock branching process inference.
Conclusions:
- Background seismicity increases during slow-slip events.
- The enhanced ETAS model provides a more comprehensive understanding of seismic activity.
- This research clarifies the relationship between slow and fast earthquakes.
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