[Dynamic Evolution and Prediction of Land Use and Carbon Storage in Gansu Province Based on SSP-RCP Scenario]

Under the double carbon strategy, exploring future changes in land use and carbon storage across different climate scenarios is important for optimizing the regional land use structure and promoting carbon balance. Based on the SSP-RCP scenario provided by CMIP6 and the SD-PLUS-InVEST model, this study discussed the dynamics of land use and carbon storage in different scenarios in the past and future and analyzed the changes of carbon storage caused by land use transfer in different scenarios from 2020 to 2035. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of forest land, grassland, water area, and construction land showed an increasing trend in Gansu Province. In the future three scenarios, the increase of water area and construction land led to the decrease of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land in different degrees, and the forest land was protected under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. ② From 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020, the change rate of carbon storage in Gansu Province was -1% and 3%, respectively. In 2035, the carbon storage in the three scenarios increased by 24.2% (SSP126), 24.04% (SSP245), and 23.14% (SSP585), and the spatial differences were evident. ③ From 2020 to 2035, the conversion of other land types to forest land contributed 44.44 million (SSP126), 47.89 million (SSP245), and 0.77 million t (SSP585) to carbon storage. The expansion of construction land resulted in carbon losses of 7.53 million (SSP126), 7.51 million (SSP245), and 30.41 million t (SSP585), while the degradation of forest and grassland led to carbon losses of 13.90 million t (SSP126), 14.13 million t (SSP245), and 39.19 million t (SSP585). In this study, the carbon density in different scenarios in the future was revised, and the change of carbon storage caused by land use change from the past to the future was quantitatively analyzed, which provided a certain method reference and scientific basis for carbon storage evaluation and regional carbon balance under the double carbon strategy.