[Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage Assessment in Jinan Metropolitan Area]

To optimize land use and achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, this study investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan area from 2010 to 2030. Using land use data from 2010, 2015, and 2020, the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns for 2030 under four development scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, cropland land protection, and urban development. The InVEST model was then used to calculate carbon storage under these scenarios. The study presented that: ① Between 2010 and 2020, the most significant reduction was in cropland, with a decrease of 3.34%, while the most significant increase was in construction land, with an increase of 3.13%. By 2030, cropland and grassland are anticipated to contract across scenarios, while forestland, water bodies, and construction land are projected to show variable expansion. ② The total carbon storage showed a decreasing trend. In 2030, carbon storage increased only under the ecological protection scenario, with an increase of 873 015.30 tons, while other scenarios exhibited varying degrees of decrease. Mount Tai and the Yimeng Mountains were significant carbon sinks in the Jinan metropolitan area; in contrast, the urban area of Jinan, as well as the Zhangqiu district and Zichuan district of Zibo, were the primary areas of carbon storage loss. ③ Drivers influencing land-use change also indirectly affected carbon storage. Socioeconomic and transportation factors promoted the conversion of high carbon density land to low carbon density land, thereby reducing the total regional carbon storage. Conversely, climatic and natural factors, by limiting such conversions, had a significant positive impact on carbon storage conservation.