[Driving Mechanisms of Habitat Quality Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation Optimization of Habitat Quality in...

Watershed habitat is related to the sustainable and efficient use of land resources and the maintenance of ecosystem service functions. Clarifying the spatial-temporal variations and driving mechanisms of habitat quality can effectively guide ecological environment construction and achieve the goal of green development. Taking the Minjiang River Basin as an example, this study analyzed the current situation of land use and habitat quality evolution characteristics based on the land use transfer matrix and InVEST model. System dynamics were also introduced to identify driving mechanisms of habitat quality. The main influencing factors in the mechanism were selected as driving factors to simulate the three scenarios of natural development, economic development, and ecological protection of land use in the Minjiang River Basin in 2030 and put forward the strategy of habitat quality optimization. The results showed that: ① From 1990 to 2020, the land use transfer in the Minjiang River Basin presented a characteristic change from obvious agglomeration to dispersion transfer. The construction land expanded by 877.13 km², and the ecological surface (forest land, grassland, and water) decreased by 369.39 km². ② During the study period, the habitat quality score of the Minjiang River Basin was high but showed a trend of gradual degradation. The degradation showed the characteristics of "taking the town as the center and the degraded area spreading outward, " but the degree of degradation was low. ③ The system dynamics model verified that economic development destroyed the ecological environment but promoted the adoption of ecological protection behavior to a certain extent. As a result, economic development and ecological protection jointly affected the evolution of habitat quality in the Minjiang River Basin. ④ The simulation results showed that except for that of the ecological protection scenario, the habitat quality of the other scenarios showed a trend of degradation, indicating that limiting the transfer of ecological surface could effectively improve the habitat quality. The purpose of this study was to explore the unique driving mechanism of habitat quality in the Minjiang River Basin and to provide a theoretical basis for the comprehensive management of the ecological environment in the surrounding areas.