[Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Response of Ecosystem Services in Southern Jiangxi Province Based on...

The study of land use change and ecosystem service responses under different future scenarios can provide valuable decision-making support for urban planning and sustainable development. Taking the southern Jiangxi Province as the study area, the patch-level land use simulation (PLUS) model is first utilized to predict the spatial distribution patterns of land use in 2030 under four scenarios: natural development, farmland protection, economic development, and ecological conservation. Secondly, the InVEST model was employed to assess carbon storage, habitat quality, and water yield services under each scenario. Finally, a comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) was constructed to reflect the overall level of ecosystem services, enabling an exploration of the integrated impacts of land use changes on ecosystem service functions. The results show that: ① The overall simulation accuracy of the PLUS model was 0.956, indicating high precision and suitability for simulating and predicting land use in the study area. Among the four development scenarios, land use changes were most pronounced under the economic development scenario. ② The overall level of carbon storage and habitat quality in southern Jiangxi Province was relatively high, with high values primarily concentrated in the mountainous regions in the west and south, while urban areas exhibited discrete low values. The distribution pattern of water yield was characterized by high values at the periphery and low values in the center. Carbon storage and habitat quality exhibited significant changes under the economic development scenario, decreasing by 3.914×10⁶ tons and 0.004, respectively, while the changes were relatively moderate under the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios. ③ Compared with that in the base year, the CES in southern Jiangxi Province showed a slight increase by 2030. The hot spots of the CES were mainly distributed in the mountainous regions with high vegetation coverage, while the cold spots were discretely distributed in counties and cities and showed a tendency of centralization. ④ The expansion of built-up areas and the decrease in forest land were the main factors driving the changes in ecosystem services in the study area. Through scientific urban planning and policy formulation, it is possible to effectively balance economic and social development with ecosystem conservation. This study aims to provide scientific support for sustainable development policies in southern Jiangxi Province and offers new perspectives for research on the coupling mechanisms between land use and ecosystem services.