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Updated: Jan 10, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
[Land Use Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Assessment of the Panxi Dry Valley Region Under Policy-oriented
Xin Cheng1, Zuo-Lin Xiao1, Xin-Yi Hu1
1Chongqing Key Laboratory of GIS Application, College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China.
None:
The Sichuan Province is committed to transforming the Panxi dry valley region into the "Second Granary of Tianfu." Accurately assessing the ecosystem service value (ESV) of this region under different scenarios is crucial for establishing ecological compensation mechanisms and formulating farmland protection policies. Based on land use data from 2000, 2015, and 2020, the PLUS model and the dynamic equivalent factor method were employed to quantitatively predict the ESV for 2035. Policy-oriented scenario simulations were developed by considering policy factors and regional development goals. The relationships among ecological service functions were analyzed using a trade-off/synergy model. The results revealed the following: ① By 2035, the overall land use patterns were projected to remain similar; however, under the natural development scenario, construction land increased significantly while cultivated land, grassland, and unused land decreased. The policy-oriented scenario effectively curtailed the expansion of construction land and increased forest and cultivated land, reflecting the positive impact of policies on protecting ecological land. ② Under the policy-oriented scenario, the ESV for 2035 was projected to reach 86.985 billion yuan, with a spatial distribution characterized by "high values in the west and low values in the east" and high-value areas concentrated around mountains and rivers. By optimizing the land use structure, the area of ESV cold spots was reduced, mitigating the decline in ESV. ③ Under the policy-oriented scenario for 2035, ecological service functions exhibited full synergy, indicating that rational land use planning and a precise understanding of functional relationships are essential for achieving the coordinated development of ecosystem services and ensuring ecological security. These findings provide scientific guidance for implementing the "Second Granary of Tianfu" plan.
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