Precipitation disaster hotspots depend on historical climate variability.

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Extreme Weather Events
• Disaster Risk Reduction

Background:

• Record-high precipitation events pose severe, unforeseeable impacts.
• Climate change is increasing the probability of record-breaking events.
• Local disaster preparedness is influenced by historical precipitation data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how historical variability influences current and future record-breaking precipitation probabilities.
• To analyze the non-linear effects of climate change on these probabilities.
• To assess the combined risk of record-breaking events and disaster preparedness.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical precipitation data to determine current record-breaking probabilities.
• Modeling the impact of climate change scenarios (e.g., SSP2-4.5) on future probabilities.
• Evaluation of the correlation between the recency of past record-breaking events and local preparedness.

Main Results:

• Regions with low historical precipitation records are identified as being at higher risk.
• Climate change non-linearly increases record-breaking probabilities, with a 40% average increase by 2050 under SSP2-4.5.
• Areas with high historical records show the steepest increase in risk (up to 75%) under climate change.
• Low disaster preparedness, especially when the last record event was long ago, significantly elevates risk.
• High vulnerability and exposure in regions with high record-breaking probability, driven by poverty and urbanization, present an imminent threat.

Conclusions:

• Historical precipitation variability is a critical factor in assessing current and future extreme event risks.
• Climate change disproportionately amplifies risks, with high-record regions facing the steepest increases.
• Integrating climate change projections with disaster preparedness assessments is crucial for effective risk reduction strategies.