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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Managing ecosystem service deficits through ecological-social prioritization.

Azam Khosravi Mashizi1

  • 1Department of Ecological Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, 8th Km of Jiroft, Bandar Abbas Road, P.O. Box: 7867161167, Jiroft, Iran. Azam.Khosravi@ujiroft.ac.ir.

Scientific Reports
|December 1, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Arid regions face ecosystem service deficits, with 60% of Iran lacking essential services like forage and water. Understanding social-ecological interactions is key for sustainable management and planning.

Keywords:
Service deficiency mappingSpatial decision supportSustainable land managementTrade-off analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Environmental Science
  • Spatial Sustainability
  • Ecosystem Services Assessment

Background:

  • Arid and semi-arid regions confront significant challenges in maintaining ecosystem services due to environmental and socio-economic pressures.
  • Understanding the intricate social-ecological system dynamics is crucial for achieving spatial sustainability in these vulnerable areas.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a comprehensive framework for assessing the supply and demand of eight key ecosystem services in Iran.
  • To identify spatial patterns of ecosystem service deficiencies and analyze the drivers of supply-demand mismatches.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of spatial analysis, statistical modeling, and Bayesian networks.
  • Assessment of eight ecosystem services: forage, water yield, medicinal plants, mushroom, carbon sequestration, pollination, recreation, and aesthetic value.
  • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and statistical analysis to identify key services and stakeholder differences.

Main Results:

  • Over 60% of Iran exhibits deficiencies in at least one ecosystem service, with forage (78%) and pollination (75%) being most affected.
  • Ecologically, water services and carbon sequestration are critical; socially, water, pollination, and forage are prioritized.
  • Synergistic interactions dominate ecosystem service supply (p<0.01), while trade-offs prevail at the demand level (p<0.05).

Conclusions:

  • Population, land-use change, and management are primary socio-economic drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches.
  • Medical plant and aesthetic value services show the highest spatial sensitivity to threats (78% and 74%, respectively).
  • The integrated framework provides a practical tool for informed decision-making in arid and semi-arid ecosystem management and planning.