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Anthropogenic emissions shape long-term changes in PM2.5 concentrations and health risks in China
Yiheng Wang1, Guochao Chen1, Yutong Yang1
1Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention, Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.
Eco-Environment & Health
|December 2, 2025
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Atmospheric Chemistry
Background:
- China's fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels have fluctuated since 2000.
- PM2.5 sources and their impacts vary significantly across regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify PM2.5 concentrations and associated health risks in China from 2000-2020.
- To identify key drivers of PM2.5 changes and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures.
Main Methods:
- Developed a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model.
- Constructed a source-resolved PM2.5 database for China (2000-2020).
- Applied the piling-up decomposition method to assess health risks and driving factors.
Main Results:
- Anthropogenic emissions, especially industrial, drove PM2.5 increases (2000-2012) and decreases (2012-2020).
- Industrial sources are the largest PM2.5 contributor (32%), followed by residential (22%) and transportation (13%).
- Air pollution controls reduced premature mortality by 20.4% (2012-2020), partially offset by demographic shifts.
Conclusions:
- Stringent controls on industrial and transportation emissions are vital for future health benefits.
- Anthropogenic sources pose disproportionately high health risks due to concentration in populated areas.
- Region-specific emission reduction policies and sustained controls are crucial for mitigating PM2.5 impacts.
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