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Updated: Jan 9, 2026

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Restoring institutional confidence in backsliding democracies: Evidence from Mexico.

Brett Bessen1, Susan Stokes2, Andres Uribe3

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Backsliding leaders

Keywords:
Mexicoconfidence in electionsdemocratic backslidingdemocratic erosionmisinformation

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Social Psychology
  • Communication Studies

Background:

  • Declining public confidence in institutions is a global democratic challenge.
  • Backsliding leaders intentionally erode institutions supporting democratic accountability.
  • Understanding the impact of such rhetoric is crucial for democratic resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if anti-institutional rhetoric from leaders decreases public confidence.
  • To determine if rebuttals can restore public confidence in attacked institutions.
  • To analyze these dynamics within the context of Mexican politics.

Main Methods:

  • Text-as-data analysis of presidential rhetoric.
  • Survey experiments to measure public confidence.
  • Examination of counternarratives from non-partisan organizations.

Main Results:

  • President López Obrador's rhetoric significantly attacked the national election oversight agency.
  • Anti-institutional rhetoric demonstrably reduced public confidence.
  • Counternarratives successfully restored public confidence, even among president's supporters.

Conclusions:

  • Leaders' rhetoric can degrade democratic institutions and public trust.
  • Strategic counternarratives can mitigate negative impacts and rebuild confidence.
  • Findings offer pathways to counter democracy-degrading rhetoric and partisanship.