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Violent deaths following disasters: A retrospective analysis
Sarah Elizabeth Scales1, Lauren C Camphausen2, Jennifer A Horney2
1Department of Epidemiology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, United States of America.
Plos One
|December 4, 2025
Summary
Disaster exposure did not significantly increase violent deaths overall, but some specific events like severe storms in Wisconsin showed a rise in non-suicide deaths. Further research is needed as disasters become more frequent.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Health
Background:
- Disaster exposure is linked to negative mental health outcomes, potentially increasing violence risk.
- The specific relationship between disaster exposure and violent death incidence remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the incidence of violent deaths during disaster and non-disaster periods.
- To analyze five distinct natural disaster events across the U.S.
Main Methods:
- Ecological, quasi-experimental design examining pre-disaster and disaster periods.
- Utilized National Violent Death Reporting System data for five U.S. states.
- Employed Poisson regression to compare violent death rates in affected and unaffected counties.
Main Results:
- Violent death incidence remained consistent between disaster and non-disaster periods overall.
- A significant increase in non-suicide and all-cause violent deaths was observed in Wisconsin following severe storms and flooding for specific counties.
- Rate ratios were heterogeneous but not statistically significant across most individual disasters.
Conclusions:
- Findings align with existing literature showing heterogeneous effects of disasters on violent deaths.
- The increasing frequency and severity of disasters necessitate further investigation into their link with violent deaths and mental health outcomes.
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