Climate-responsive cropland dynamics in Indus Basin: A comprehensive SDM assessment with intra-seasonal variability
Fatima Ilyas1, Muhammad Azmat1, Swera Javed1
1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
The Science of the Total Environment
|December 4, 2025
Summary
Climate change will alter crop suitability in Pakistan's Indus Plain. Predicting these shifts for wheat, rice, cotton, maize, and sugarcane is crucial for food security and adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Climate change poses significant risks to global food security by altering crop suitability.
- The Indus Plain, a vital agricultural region in Pakistan, faces potential impacts on its major crops due to changing climatic conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the spatial and temporal shifts in the suitability of five major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize) in the Indus Plain under future climate change scenarios.
- To identify key climatic variables and elevation influencing crop suitability at different phenological stages.
Main Methods:
- An ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach was employed.
- CMIP6 climate projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for baseline, near-future, and far-future periods.
- Phenological stage-specific climatic variables and crop occurrence points were analyzed.
Main Results:
- Crop suitability is significantly influenced by elevation and phenology-specific climatic variables (temperature, precipitation).
- Rice and cotton suitability is projected to decline initially, then increase later, with shrinking suitable zones in Sindh and southern Punjab.
- Maize suitability is expected to be stable or increase in the near-term but decline later, with regional shifts from Punjab to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
- Wheat suitability is projected to decline, especially under higher emission scenarios, while sugarcane faces impacts similar to cotton.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is predicted to significantly shift crop suitability across the Indus Plain, with considerable regional variations.
- Elevated temperatures, heat waves, and altered precipitation patterns present substantial risks to crop cultivation, necessitating adaptive cropping patterns and water resource management.
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