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Climate-Driven Habitat Loss and Natural Fragmentation Increase Extinction Risk and Compromise Population Viability in

Jessica Côte¹, Gaël Grenouillet^1,2, Fanny Thiéry¹

¹Centre de Recherche Sur la biodiversité et L'environnement, UMR 5300, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse INP, Toulouse, France.

Global Change Biology

|December 5, 2025

Summary

Climate change significantly impacts freshwater fish extinction risk by altering habitat size and viability. Cold-water species face severe threats from climate-driven habitat loss and fragmentation.

Keywords:

aquatic ecosystems climate change extinction modeling species distribution

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Change Biology
Conservation Science

Background:

Climate change is a primary driver of the current extinction crisis.
Understanding species extinction probability is crucial for conservation.
Basin area and habitat fragmentation significantly influence extinction risk in aquatic ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and apply an extinction model for freshwater fish in France.
To quantify deterministic and stochastic extinctions under future climatic conditions.
To assess the impact of climate change on population viability and identify conservation priorities.

Main Methods:

Developed an extinction model integrating species presence probability, basin area, and biological parameters.
Utilized species distribution modeling to estimate current and future species distributions.
Applied the model to French freshwater fish to quantify extinction risks and population viability.

Main Results:

Climate change significantly affects deterministic extinction rates, varying by species and thermal preferences.
Small coastal rivers exhibit heightened extinction rates.
Cold-water species are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts on population viability and habitat loss.

Conclusions:

The developed extinction model is valuable for identifying priority areas and species for conservation planning.
Climate change poses a substantial threat to freshwater fish, especially cold-water species, through habitat fragmentation.
Conservation strategies must address both natural and anthropogenic fragmentation to mitigate extinction risks.